{"id":118,"date":"2020-02-21T08:25:34","date_gmt":"2020-02-21T07:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/?page_id=118"},"modified":"2026-02-17T13:04:15","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T13:04:15","slug":"scenar-buducnosti","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/?page_id=118","title":{"rendered":"Scen\u00e1r bud\u00facnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scen\u00e1re bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 v&nbsp;projekte ALTERFOR pokr\u00fdvaj\u00fa \u0161irok\u00fd <strong>rozsah trajekt\u00f3rii bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja<\/strong> klimatick\u00fdch zmien, polit\u00edk na mitig\u00e1ciu klimatick\u00fdch zmien, ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu spolo\u010dnosti ako aj perspekt\u00edvneho vyu\u017e\u00edvania pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch zdrojov. S\u00fa zalo\u017een\u00e9 na scen\u00e1roch na anal\u00fdzu politick\u00fdch cie\u013eov Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie (Forsell et al. 2016) kombinovan\u00fdch s r\u00e1mcami vyvinut\u00fdmi pre International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Fricko et al. 2016). Pou\u017eit\u00e1 koncepcia umo\u017e\u0148uje ich diferenci\u00e1ciu z&nbsp;h\u013eadiska \u00fasilia vynalo\u017een\u00e9ho na mitig\u00e1ciu klimatick\u00fdch zmien ako aj ich n\u00e1sledkov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Predpoklad\u00e1 sa, \u017ee silnej\u0161ie mitiga\u010dn\u00e9 politiky poved\u00fa k&nbsp;zmierneniu d\u00f4sledkov klimatick\u00fdch zmien, &nbsp;zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9mu vyu\u017e\u00edvaniu biomasy na energiu a&nbsp;n\u00e1sledn\u00e9mu zvy\u0161ovaniu \u0165a\u017eieb dreva. V&nbsp;podmienkach jednotliv\u00fdch experiment\u00e1lnych \u00fazem\u00ed sa pracuje jednak so s\u00fabormi geograficky lokalizovan\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch \u00fadajov pre bud\u00face obdobia vypracovan\u00fdch unifikovanou metodiku, ako aj s&nbsp;tzv. koment\u00e1rmi, (narratives) ktor\u00e9 poskytuj\u00fa jednotliv\u00fdm rie\u0161ite\u013esk\u00fdm t\u00edmom mo\u017enos\u0165 zamera\u0165 sa rozdielne a detailne na \u0161pecifick\u00e9 aspekty v\u00fdvoja jednotliv\u00fdch experiment\u00e1lnych \u00fazem\u00ed a&nbsp;z\u00e1rove\u0148 poskytn\u00fa\u0165 lok\u00e1lne odhady po\u017eadovan\u00fdch v\u00fdsledkov rie\u0161enia na z\u00e1klade relevantn\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00fdch vplyvov a s\u00favislost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"300\" height=\"188\" src=\"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/wp-content\/uploads\/scenare-300x188-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1332\" style=\"width:378px;height:237px\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V&nbsp;rie\u0161en\u00ed sa pou\u017e\u00edva s\u00fastava hierarchicky \u201ezhora-nadol\u201c usporiadan\u00fdch scen\u00e1rov. <strong>Referen\u010dn\u00fd scen\u00e1r<\/strong>&nbsp; predpoklad\u00e1, \u017ee bud\u00facnos\u0165 je zalo\u017een\u00e1 na extrapol\u00e1cii doteraj\u0161ieho historick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoja, na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dopytu po dreve, so strednou \u00farov\u0148ou \u0165a\u017eby a&nbsp;vyu\u017e\u00edvania \u0165a\u017ebov\u00fdch zvy\u0161kov. <strong>Scen\u00e1r E\u00da pre bioenergiu<\/strong> predpoklad\u00e1 priemern\u00fd n\u00e1rast dopytu po biomase v priebehu \u010dasu, so strednou \u00farov\u0148ou vyu\u017e\u00edvania \u0165a\u017ebov\u00fdch zvy\u0161kov. <strong>Scen\u00e1r glob\u00e1lnej bioenergie<\/strong> preber\u00e1 pr\u00edsne politiky v oblasti klimatick\u00fdch zmien na celom svete, \u010do povedie k n\u00e1rastu dopytu po biomase v \u010dase, s&nbsp;vysokou \u00farov\u0148ou vyu\u017e\u00edvania \u0165a\u017ebov\u00fdch zvy\u0161kov.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scen\u00e1re bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 v&nbsp;projekte ALTERFOR pokr\u00fdvaj\u00fa \u0161irok\u00fd rozsah trajekt\u00f3rii bud\u00faceho v\u00fdvoja klimatick\u00fdch zmien, polit\u00edk na mitig\u00e1ciu klimatick\u00fdch zmien, ekonomick\u00e9ho rastu spolo\u010dnosti ako aj perspekt\u00edvneho vyu\u017e\u00edvania pr\u00edrodn\u00fdch zdrojov. S\u00fa zalo\u017een\u00e9 na scen\u00e1roch na anal\u00fdzu politick\u00fdch cie\u013eov Eur\u00f3pskej \u00fanie (Forsell et al. 2016) kombinovan\u00fdch s r\u00e1mcami vyvinut\u00fdmi pre International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Fricko et [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-118","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=118"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/118\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1435,"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/118\/revisions\/1435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/gis.tuzvo.sk\/alterfor-sk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}